The notion that global agricultural output needs to double by 2050 is oft repeated. Using a new International Agricultural Prospects (iAP) Model, to project global agricultural consumption and production, we find in favour of a future where aggregate agricultural consumption (in tonnes) increases more modestly, by around 69 per cent (1.3 per cent per year) from 2010 to 2050.
Pardey, Philip G.; Beddow, Jason M.; Hurley, Terrance M.; Beatty, Timothy K.M.; Eidman, Vernon R. (2014) "A Bounds Analysis of World Food Futures: Global Agriculture Through to 2050," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, vol. 58, 4.