Publishing Details
Abstract
In this chapter, an economic surplus approach is applied to assess the potential impact of a range of current and emerging technologies. Specialists and experts guided the definition of 6 banana production systems, determined according to productivity potential and the commercial orientation of growers, and 14 technology scenarios that span current best practices for managing bananas, genetic transformation, and conventional breeding. Simulations indicate that current recommended scenarios could generate the highest levels of gross benefits, assuming relatively high rates of adoption. Transgenic varieties resistant to major pests and diseases currently affecting banana production in Uganda appear to generate greater potential benefits than do conventional technologies. In part, this finding reflects expectations that gene insertion is more effective at combating specific pests and diseases. Time lags associated with R&D are also expected to be even longer for conventional banana improvement than for genetic transformation, given the plant’s sterility.
