With limited resources to cope with weather variability, smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are facing highly unreliable crop production from year to year. In this modeling exercise we quantified how much area is under such condition and what are their production potential under intensification. The simulation result indicates that, without further intensification, only 15% of current maize growing area has the potential to reliably produce more than 3 t/ha, a yield level suggested as being sufficient to sustain the cereal needs of a typical smallholder household. However, with well-managed intensification, 82% of the current maize area showed the potential to reliably produce 3 t/ha or more.
